The reluctance of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to align with the EU on the world stage or in its democratic processes poses a risk not only to Europe’s enlargement project, but could also weaken the EU’s ability to bolster security in its eastern neighborhood, assessed Angelica Vascotto, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
In her article “Backsliding in Belgrade: The State of Serbia’s European Future,” Vascotto notes that a failure to mediate and incentivize democratic recovery in Serbia could create greater room for political maneuvers by third countries, pulling the country further away from its Western neighbors, reports news agency Beta’s Daily European Service.
Vascotto writes that in recent years, Russia, China, and the Gulf states have acquired significant space in Serbia’s political arena. If Serbia continues to drift toward such actors, the EU could lose Serbia’s economy to foreign markets.
This could also be damaging for Serbia because, while EU grants and financial support might seem tied to policy conditions, foreign funds are no less connected to obligations or dependence.
Finally, the worsening of political rights—including the persistent use of police force to suppress protests, the intimidation of journalists, and the imprisonment of protesters—could push even more citizens to migrate west. This is detrimental both to Serbia, due to the depletion of its labor market, and to Europe, where leaders are striving to reduce migration figures.
However, Vascotto writes, continuing Serbia’s EU accession process despite the current trajectory could carry a high political cost. Specifically, the EU risks importing another illiberal figure like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and further undermining the enforcement of the rule of law, media freedom, and democratic standards.
According to the analyst, the EU has not yet lost Serbia to illiberalism, and Brussels should focus on finding a more effective way to communicate with liberal political actors in Serbia to present itself as a point of democratic and foreign policy reference whose support can be counted on.
“While Vučić does not appear particularly interested in establishing an authentic relationship with the EU, mediating through less hardline Serbian politicians would be more strategic and could potentially open more doors for much-needed reforms,” Vascotto stated.
As she added, the EU must also be prepared to act regarding Kosovo and support a bilateral solution.
“Europeans should closely monitor the democratic situation in Serbia and be ready to take clear actions in case of further instability, remaining firm on the consequences this would have for Serbia’s EU accession process,” Vascotto emphasized.
She pointed out the fundamental importance of preserving internal strength and shared political visions, adding that this makes more effective mediation channels and stronger support for reforms crucial, alongside a firm stance by the EU on the consequences of illiberal behavior, which would contribute to a more genuine alignment between Belgrade and Brussels.
Demonstrating both solidarity and solidity with less hardline political actors could be key to fostering greater pluralism in Serbia’s political processes, Vascotto concluded.
(Beta News Agency)